El Niño is already here and getting stronger.

The latest Southern African climate outlook says it could reach strong to very strong levels later in 2026. For October to December, below-normal rainfall is more likely across most of South Africa, while temperatures are expected to be above average across most of the region.

But what does that actually mean for us?

What is El Niño?

El Niño happens when parts of the tropical Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual.

It may be thousands of kilometres away, but that warming can change winds and rainfall patterns around the world. El Niño events usually occur every two to seven years.

In Southern Africa, a strong El Niño is often linked to a higher chance of hotter, drier conditions. But it does not mean every area will be dry or that rain will disappear.

Why it matters to all of us

• Water: Less summer rain can mean less water flowing into rivers, dams and reservoirs. Hotter weather can also increase water use.
• Food: Poor rainfall can affect crops and livestock, which may eventually put pressure on food supply and prices.
• Heat: Above-average temperatures could mean hotter days and greater demand for water and electricity.
• Fire risk: Long periods of hot, dry weather can dry out vegetation and increase the risk of veld fires.

Does this mean a drought is coming?

No.

El Niño increases the chance of certain weather conditions. It cannot tell us exactly how much rain Johannesburg, Gauteng or any particular town will receive.

SADC also points out that other climate patterns influence our rainfall, so forecasts can change as the season develops.

An interesting fact

El Niño usually lasts around 9 to 12 months.

A strong event can affect weather in places thousands of kilometres from the Pacific Ocean. That's why something happening in the ocean on the other side of the world can eventually influence our summer here.

What can we do?

No need to panic or start storing water. The useful steps are simple:

• Fix leaking taps and toilets.
• Use water carefully, especially during very hot weather.
• Water gardens during cooler parts of the day.
• Take veld-fire warnings seriously during hot, dry and windy weather.
• Keep an eye on updated weather and water reports as summer approaches.

Larger-scale preparations are already being discussed at the regional level. SADC has called for early-warning systems, drought planning, irrigation and drought-tolerant crops to help countries prepare for possible El Niño-related problems.

That is one advantage of knowing about El Niño early: there is time to prepare before the main summer rainfall season.

The Bottom Line

A very strong El Niño does not mean South Africa is definitely heading for drought.

It does mean a hotter and potentially drier summer is worth preparing for. For most of us, that simply means using water wisely, watching the forecasts and understanding that El Niño can affect much more than whether it rains.